مهندسی دریا
Abdolrahim Taheri; Mahdi Tasdighi
Abstract
Design with high Confidence over hard costs overwhelms the execution of the project. Also using a low reliability coefficient raises the risk of high project failure. The degree of contribution of each parameter to uncertainty can be detected by sensitivity analysis. In this paper, the effect of uncertainty ...
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Design with high Confidence over hard costs overwhelms the execution of the project. Also using a low reliability coefficient raises the risk of high project failure. The degree of contribution of each parameter to uncertainty can be detected by sensitivity analysis. In this paper, the effect of uncertainty of three parameters of modulus of elasticity, pipeline thickness and diameter of pipe, which are three influential parameters of a pipeline geometry on the vertical buckling of the offshore pipelines are considered. Both the First Order Second Moment and the Second Order Reliability Method analyzes are considered for the pipeline parameter sensitivity analysis. First Order Second Moment have 4 impact vector and Second Order Reliability Method have 1 impact vector. The results show that the diameter of the pipeline is more effective than the other two parameters. The least difference is between the modulus of elasticity and the thickness of the pipeline, in other words, these two parameters are closely related in sensitivity. Two parameters of thickness and diameter of pipeline are resistance variable and modulus of elasticity of is a load resistance variable. Reliability index values in FORM and FOSM are distinct but close to each other, which is lower in FOSM.